This study explores how Chinese mutual fund managers’ degrees of disagreement (DOD) on stock market returns affect investor capital allocation decisions using a novel textbased measure of expectations in fund disclosures. In the time series, the DOD negatively predicts market returns. Cross-sectional results show that investors correctly perceive the DOD as an overpricing signal and discount fund performance accordingly. Flow-performance sensitivity (FPS) is diminished during high dispersion periods. The effect is stronger for outperforming funds and funds with substantial investments in bubble and high-beta stocks, but weaker for skilled funds. We also discuss ffnancial sophistication of investors and provide evidence that our results are not contingent upon such sophistication.

This paper studies the economic impact of the emergence of FinTech platforms on financial intermediation. In China, platform distributions of mutual funds emerged in 2012 and grew quickly into a formidable presence. Utilizing the staggered fund entrance onto platforms, we find markedly increased flow sensitivities to performance. Akin to the winner-take-all phenomenon in the platform economy, net flow captured by top 10% performing funds more than triples its pre-platform level. This pattern of platform-induced performance chasing is further confirmed using private data from Howbuy, a top platform in China. Consistent with this added incentive of becoming top performers in the era of large-scale platforms, fund managers increase risk taking to enhance the probability of becoming top performers. Meanwhile, organizational cohesiveness of fund families weakens as platforms level the playing field for all funds.

We examine whether investor behavior can be influenced by the social norms to which they are exposed. Specifically, we test two competing hypotheses regarding the influence of social trust on the disposition effect related to mutual fund investment. On the one hand, a higher level of social trust may elicit stronger investor reactions by increasing the credibility of the performance numbers reported by funds. This results in higher flow-performance sensitivity, which mitigates investors’ tendency to sell winners and hold onto losers. On the other hand, societal trust may reduce concerns about expropriation, thereby weakening investors’ need to react to poor performance. The resulting lower flow-performance sensitivity increases the disposition effect. Based on a proprietary dataset of complete account-level trading information for all investors in a large mutual fund family in China, we find compelling evidence 1) of a significant disposition effect among fund investors; 2) that a higher degree of social trust is associated with higher flow-performance sensitivity; and 3) that (high) trust-induced flows mitigate the disposition effect. Our results suggest that, in addition to cognitive biases, investor behavior is also strongly influenced by social norms.